Odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032 have fallen again

image via New Scientist

February 18, 2025, 12:11 PM

• •Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 1.5 per cent chance of hitting Earth in 2032, down from a high of 1-in-32
• •The asteroid is thought to be between 40 and 90 metres wide and has the potential to release energy equivalent to 7.7 megatonnes of TNT
• •Astronomers are running out of time to forecast the asteroid's risk as it will fly behind the sun in April

Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a small chance of hitting Earth in 2032, but as astronomers make more observations about its trajectory, the odds of a collision are being refined. The asteroid is thought to be between 40 and 90 metres wide and has the potential to release energy equivalent to 7.7 megatonnes of TNT should it hit Earth – enough to destroy a city.

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