The Science Behind Peak Fall Colors: What to Expect in 2025

image via New Scientist

October 10, 2025, 3:00 PM

• •Explore Fall is a public platform that predicts fall foliage progression across the continental U.S.
• •Peak fall colors in 2025 are expected in New England, the Rockies, the Plains, and the Midwest.
• •Extreme weather events like drought and frost can significantly impact leaf color.
• •Warming before the summer solstice tends to make senescence start earlier.

Scientists are using climate science and weather data to predict the timing and intensity of fall foliage. Models analyze temperature, daylight hours, and precipitation to forecast where and when the most vibrant colors will appear. Factors like reduced sunlight, temperature, and rainfall influence leaf color changes, with drought potentially leading to dull foliage. Research indicates that warmer conditions are causing peak color to arrive earlier, potentially impacting the health of forests.

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