They Bet Against Trump’s Tariffs. Now They Stand to Make Millions

image via WIRED

February 20, 2026, 9:05 PM

• •SCOTUS struck down Trump's tariffs, creating a potential windfall for investment firms.
• •Firms purchased rights to tariff refunds from importers, betting on a legal challenge.
• •The question of whether the government will issue refunds remains unresolved.
• •Uncertainty exists, but firms are in a better position than before the ruling.

Investment firms that bet against President Trump's tariffs are poised for significant gains after the Supreme Court invalidated the policy. These firms purchased the rights to potential tariff refunds from importers, anticipating a legal challenge to the tariffs. While the ruling favors the investors, the crucial question of whether the government will issue refunds remains uncertain, adding complexity to the situation. Despite the legal uncertainties, the investors and importers are in a favorable position, with the likelihood of refunds seeming high.

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