The Arctic Could Be Functionally Ice-Free in Just a Few Years

image via New Scientist

December 3, 2024, 5:15 PM

• •The Arctic Ocean could see its first ice-free day on record by the end of the decade, even with modest levels of global warming.
• •The only way to avoid an ice-free day within the next few years is to cut emissions fast enough to stay consistent with the Paris Agreement’s most ambitious goal, capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius.
• •The Arctic’s first ice-free day is likely to occur within two decades, the new study finds. But if the right conditions line up, it could happen within three to six years.

The Arctic is likely to become ice-free by midcentury—and could pass that grim milestone much sooner—unless much more is done to combat climate change. Scientists raised the alarm in a study published Tuesday in the scientific journal Nature Communications. The research — which relies on climate models simulating trends in global temperatures and Arctic sea ice concentrations — warns the only way to avoid an ice-free day within the next few years is to cut emissions fast enough to stay consistent with the Paris Agreement’s most ambitious goal, capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius. Yet experts agree the world is all but certain to blow past that target, with current global climate pledges putting the planet on track for more than 2.6 C of warming by the end of the century. That means the Arctic’s first ice-free day is likely to occur within two decades, the new study finds. But if the right conditions line up, it could happen within three to six years.

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